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Recession’s root cause is consumer debt, expert says
Filed Under (Debt) by admin on 08-07-2008
Tagged Under : economic slowdown, recession
March 31, 2008 — There’s no magic bullet, says Steven Fazzari, economics professor at Washington University in St. Louis. The root cause of the current economic slowdown in the U.S. goes back several decades. There has been a concurrent wave of increasing consumer spending and rising consumer indebtedness. In the past, consumer spending actually helped the economy as it raised firms’ sales and encouraged more hiring. But the associated rise in household debt, most obviously in the recent housing bubble, has come back to haunt the U.S.
“For more than two decades we had consumer-led growth, which actually mitigated the recessions of the early 1990s and 2001,” Fazzari says. “Part of the reason we had mild recessions was due to consumer strength. But we kept building up debt. It was also a period of falling nominal interest rates. This meant that every cycle of low interest rates was another opportunity for people to refinance on better terms and extend their spending further.”
The economy is changing, however, and we can’t rely on consumer spending to keep rising beyond its already inflated level; households can no longer push the debt limit because the credit isn’t there. Even the Federal Reserve Bank’s move to lower interest rates doesn’t give Fazzari much hope for a turnaround.
